This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$102.9K
LIQUIDITY
$102.9K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
74d9a879611D9972dea4Ac 6h ago
what
74d9a879611D9972dea4Ac 6h ago
a
Edem1 7h ago
what do you mean
laureman Sep 22
scam market. Be aware NO holders
CondeDeBelloch Sep 22
Because orcs cannot help themselves. It's not "if", it's when they will attack.
Ban4ik Sep 22
какие 20% на октябрь уже вы обалдели что ли 😭😭😭
jjjjok6666 Sep 19
3 WW incoming
ShadowOG26 Sep 19
No military clash is gonna happen, you are loosing it all
PIkk Sep 17
the rules need careful reading here
jjjjok6666 Sep 17
impossible
Donjon Sep 17
I'm hoping escalation remains avoidable
octoppp Sep 16
Dude, a few weeks ago a Russian cruise missile crashed into a field in Poland. A few days ago, a Russian drone was spotted in Lithuania. A few weeks ago, a Russian drone tried to blow up a transport plane at an airport in Germany. lol
octoppp Sep 16
The administration stubbornly ignores it; they only acknowledge the market if a missile lands—accompanied by a packet of documents confirming it came from Russia.
finalyhere Sep 15
dont believe that
Nicolasro91 Sep 15
Want to know it too
jjjjok6666 Sep 15
why it raised so high today lol?
aspepnips Sep 15
how likely is it to be 100% identifitied as operated by russia? if lithuanian authority claims "most likely russian" is that enough to qualify?
ArthurGreen Sep 15
THIS IS POTENTIALLY BIG. "A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuania shortly after midnight on Tuesday, the Lithuanian national crisis management centre said. The drone, which likely entered from Belarus, was shot down near Pratkunai village in southern Lithuania, near Kaunas, the second-largest city, the centre’s spokesperson said. ITS ORIGIN IS YET TO BE DETERMINED, he said." (Source: Internazionale) So this is exactly the type of event where a later forensic identification could change things dramatically and in favor for a yes-resolution!
0x2E557b6d82D31c810D52F2dD694eD2f754E8Fb2A-1777496641023 Sep 14
LITHUANIA JUST SHOT DOWN A UAV FROM RUSSIA 🚨🚨🚨‼️‼️‼️
NoSteinNoGate Sep 13
A Russian drone impacting on nato territory is not enough?
cgtb Sep 9
living in Poland
lottonakamoto Sep 8
On the afternoon of September 8, residents of the Romanian cities of Iași and Vaslui received an RO-Alert message warning of a possible drone crash or its fragments. The General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations issued the warning to residents of the aforementioned cities at 4:36 PM local time, Ziare reports. "There is a risk of objects falling from the air. Remain calm! Take shelter in basements or civil defense shelters. If shelter is not available, stay inside your home, away from windows and external walls. Estimated duration: 90 minutes," the message stated.
lottonakamoto Sep 8
Днем 8 сентября жители румынских городов Яссы и Васлуй получили сообщение RO-Alert с предупреждением о возможном падении дронов или их фрагментов. Генеральная инспекция по чрезвычайным ситуациям выпустила предупреждение для жителей упомянутых городов в 16:36 по местному времени, пишет Ziare. "Существует вероятность падения объектов из воздушного пространства. Сохраняйте спокойствие! Укройтесь в подвалах или убежищах гражданской защиты. В отсутствие укрытия оставайтесь внутри дома, подальше от окон и наружных стен. Предполагаемая продолжительность: 90 минут", — говорилось в сообщении.
12beduins Sep 5
ukr getting wrecked, only chance is to somehow involve NATO
lottonakamoto Sep 5
During the State Duma elections, Russians living in unfriendly countries will open ten polling stations at border crossings with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, Pavel Andreyev, a member of the Russian Central Election Commission, told TASS. Five polling stations will be set up in the Pskov Region, four in the Kaliningrad Region, and one in the Leningrad Region. The last will be located in Ivangorod, at the Ivangorod-Narva Russian-Estonian border crossing. According to Andreyev, the polling stations may be in demand, including by Russians living in Poland and Germany. A similar format was already used during the March 2024 presidential elections. Then, 11 polling stations were opened at the borders with Poland and the diverse Baltic states, where approximately 10,000 people cast their ballots. This is where conflicts and provocations are possible.
CW1975 Sep 3
Trading is disabled, here and elsewhere, too - Platform does not work properly for several days, though we pay a lot of fees 🙄
tricky.eth Sep 2
Europe (noun): "A continent of the northern hemisphere, separated from Africa to the south by the Mediterranean Sea and from Asia to the east roughly by the Bosporus, the Caucasus Mountains, and the Ural Mountains. Europe contains approximately 20 per cent of the world's population." Ukraine is located west of the Caucasus mountains. Therefore it is in Europe. I say this despite already knowing that you clearly don't have the reading comprehension skills necessary to understand this.
Laure Sep 1
Ní ionradh pleanáilte atá i mbaol, ach timpiste oibríochtúil gan srian sa Mhuir Bhailt nó sa Mhuir Dhubh a chuirfeadh borradh géaraithe faoi.
0xA1D6B7c8f2271D153A60d48F5656f6Cc49d4982D-1777574009113 Aug 28
New sea drone "incident", this time a ship sank: Romanian sailors fleeing the ship reported a drone strike. Observers and local accounts indicate it appears to be a Russian drone attack, continuing a dangerous uptick of drone incidents in the Black Sea throughout 2026."
12beduins Aug 27
ukr pooping themselves in fear its over
pookyisback Aug 27
Nah
Car Aug 27
Its happening.
12beduins Aug 26
its neither european nor country
0xf7eFBaBC3C14Bc7c1A8Cf7b79808e093ca23E53F-1783199708363 Aug 26
what
xew4w3345 Aug 26
Sky is red
12beduins Aug 26
ukraines not european country
nottrito Aug 25
The last time a CIA director was in Russia, a European country was invaded.
DonationsReceiver Aug 25
ну позязя не непадай на НАТО
12beduins Aug 24
rhetorical question bitch, look it up!
imstupid Aug 24
People die in wars, did you not know?
12beduins Aug 21
What a failure it is, Project Ukraine 👎 👎 👎
12beduins Aug 21
Ukraine now talking bout conscripting women. HAHAHAHAH WHAT HAPPENED TO THE MEN!?!?!!!?!
GetRekt17 Aug 21
whio is he and where is he yapping?
rafael7 Aug 21
Schizo relay always loses
Raskell Aug 21
Romanias mapn confirmed it had explosives
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
/r/interestingasfuck/comments/1vtids6/romanian_f16_strafing_a_russian_naval_drone_near/
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
There's a video of it being shot on reddit, it doesn't blow up. Sorry no explosives
Tezcatlipoca Aug 21
Politico: Romania’s Ministry of National Defense initially said the uncrewed vessel was carrying explosives, but later clarified it was a maritime drone.
James-Talarico Aug 21
Don't cry
James-Talarico Aug 21
Snow-White, r u OKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK？
