Science

$499.9K Vol.Apr 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

September 300%

December 313%

$449.1K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

3%

$329.5K Vol.Ends Feb 1, 2027

Crypto

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

2%

$196.8K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

6%

$146.9K Vol.Ends Apr 1, 2027

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

3%

$142.1K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

1%

$117.3K Vol.Ends Mar 1, 2027

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 20262%

December 31, 202628%

$46.5K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Science

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

4%

$26.8K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%

950–9990%

6 more

$23.9K Vol.Jan 11, 2027

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

3%

$20.1K Vol.Ends Jan 8, 2027

Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

11%

$16.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%

$13.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX56%

OOpenAI44%

$12.1K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Tech

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

9%

$11.6K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20262%

December 31, 202714%

$11.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 20267%

December 31, 202644%

$9.8K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

4%

$9.0K Vol.Ends Mar 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 3077%

October 3198%

5 more

$6.2K Vol.Jul 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

175%

224%

$6.2K Vol.Mar 2, 2027

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?87%

March 31, 202747%

$4.7K Vol.Jul 1, 2027

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer20%

Hodge Conjecture53%

$3.6K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 202612%

December 31, 202644%

$3.6K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

77.9 or below74%

88.0 – 8.111%

5 more

$3.4K Vol.Jan 7, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 31100%

December 31100%

$3.4K Vol.-

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

DDecember 31, 20264%

DDecember 31, 202714%

$3.1K Vol.Jan 1, 2029

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

056%

133%

$2.8K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

October 3111%

December 3120%

$2.0K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Culture

Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

100%

$1.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

FFewer than 201%

220 to 3416%

2 more

$1.7K Vol.Apr 1, 2027

Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?

<275mm98%

275-300mm1%

8 more

$1.5K Vol.Dec 8, 2026

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

BBelow -3.00 ft14%

--3.00 to -1.01 ft22%

$1.2K Vol.Dec 2, 2026

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"1%

2-3"59%

$1.0K Vol.Dec 8, 2026

Tech

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

77%

$1.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2028

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k100%

↑4.5k87%

6 more

$935 Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Politics

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

11%

$806 Vol.Ends Jul 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX42%

OpenAI1%

10 more

$780 Vol.Jan 2, 2027

World

New pandemic in 2026?

6%

$755 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Riemann Hypothesis8%

P versus NP3%

12 more

$738 Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

3500+98%

3800+3%

$693 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

7%

$660 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

June 30, 202747%

December 31, 202769%

$625 Vol.Jan 1, 2028

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

11st hottest2%

22nd hottest98%

2 more

$624 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in London in September?

<30mm33%

30-40mm46%

5 more

$484 Vol.Dec 8, 2026

Finance

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

13%

$467 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

BBelow 3.00 ft16%

33.00 to 3.99 ft34%

$414 Vol.Dec 2, 2026

How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?

MMore than 550,00090%

MMore than 575,00057%