On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
24H VOLUME
$307.9K
LIQUIDITY
$307.9K
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$0
Comments (50)
jacobpoles 1h ago
It’s leverage for both of them. Iran earns money from oil leaving and also buys useful imports. The US gets lower fuel prices, fertilizer, and higher public morale.
hyper-liquid-xyz 5h ago
Emirati ship attacked by Iran in the Hormuz today resulted in a ship fire and unfortunate casualty of an Indian national. US: Let's abandon the blockade and leave EU to fend for themselves!
yungsoleimani 7h ago
If its not this week itll never happen sorry not sorry
Ponno 16h ago
No is free
obolmaya 16h ago
Expecting a formal White House or State Dept announcement ending naval sanctions enforcement within five weeks is highly unrealistic. Diplomatic negotiations move at a snail's pace, making 'No' the only rational position to hold through October.
pup1 Sep 22
sorry not sorry
yungsoleimani Sep 22
Yopp
adasol Sep 22
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL: DETAILS OF AN AGREEMENT TO END HOSTILITIES WITH US CAN BE DISCUSSED IN NEW YORK VIA MEDIATORS
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 21
GG guys not going to happen today unfortunately, apparently atm he is having talks but im assuming he is going to announce tomorrow or wednesday pre market, he normally doesnt announce this late in the evening, no benefit to him.
NoSteinNoGate Sep 21
Yes that is their leverage
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 21
How is this leverage iran is literally enforcing it themselves also
NoSteinNoGate Sep 21
Mhh maybe because the US loses their only real leverage?
tsybka Sep 21
:Mr. President, the blockade has been lifted.
0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-1771671654656 Sep 21
One of the pre requisite for talks was to end the blockade, I dont see why it wouldn't be today to end it...
RUMBLED Sep 21
I'm on the no side but I do actually see a path for Trump to resolve this as a Yes. One is pressure from the other Middle Eastern countries force him to end the blockade. Second is he will just declare victory and end the blockade as the midterms approach and then doesn't actually do it.
RUMBLED Sep 21
That's because a deal was signed and then violated by Israel. Since then Iran has said they won't deal with the US until 2029 when he leaves office. They could be bluffing but considering how reliable the demented 80 year old is at keeping his word I'm going with Iran on this one.
adasol Sep 21
next week will be interesting
adasol Sep 21
at least we know if there is a path or not. Iran never gives Trump the publicity of a meeting unless he has already made enough concessions for Iran
Cal800 Sep 21
If you do your research the Iranian president Pezeshkian and negotiators Ghalibaf / Araghchi are all considered moderates. Meeting them is not the issue. The real problem is the hardliners IRGC holding the real power. It will take some time to wear them down. Unlikely to meet (in a official venue), negotiate, and come to a ratified agreement in 10 days.
MARV-1 Sep 20
yes, that was what i was saying
MARV-1 Sep 20
then why did you buy yes when you explained the reasons for no
ArthurGreen Sep 20
The last blockade lasted 69 days. We are at this point again.
adasol Sep 20
BREAKING: US President Donald Trump tells Fox News that he would “probably” be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly
Feracios Sep 20
🤡
wisechinaman Sep 20
Peace in the Middle East ☮️
elpasomarco Sep 20
готовься пендостан, пролив будет открыт. Дядя трамп сделает красиво
adasol Sep 20
BREAKING: Iran has reportedly issued “Code 100,” its highest alert level, across the IRGC, Army and security forces in the past hour. The alert is reportedly used when Iranian authorities believe an attack may be imminent. Trump abruptly cut short his Camp David weekend and returned to the White House Saturday night without an explanation. Netanyahu has also shortened his U.S. trip, canceling a planned meeting with Elon Musk in Texas. No meeting with Trump is currently scheduled. Meanwhile, U.S. embassies across the Middle East — including Iraq, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Lebanon, Kuwait and Jordan — have issued security alerts warning of “unforeseen escalation,” possible flight cancellations and airspace closures. The State Department warned that the conflict “has the potential to escalate rapidly.” Iran on its highest reported alert. Trump back in Washington. Netanyahu returning to Israel. U.S. embassies across the region warning of escalation
NoSteinNoGate Sep 19
Caspian sea meeting or what do you mean?
MARV-1 Sep 19
On the 23rd of September look it up! Or tell me why you’re still holding no, what’s your conviction. I’m here to learn
MARV-1 Sep 19
On the 23rd of September. Look it up
NoSteinNoGate Sep 18
Is that meeting in the room with us right now?
nosaben26 Sep 18
a meeting next week? crap
MARV-1 Sep 18
guys, what about the meeting next week? do you think it might reopen the blockade?
brightleaf Sep 17
Buy more Yes
AlexxHamilton Sep 15
noises .... don't care
MARV-1 Sep 15
Day for what?
KyroKennn Sep 15
Today is the day 😝
NoSteinNoGate Sep 14
How many times will YES bettors fall for the same thing again and again?
mewmew1 Sep 14
based
tsybka Sep 14
PEACE
yonips Sep 14
ah got it
yonips Sep 14
bc it's literally still sep 14 just read the rules dude
Ning0049 Sep 14
What is happing? Why doesn't the system resolve September 14 case?
RUMBLED Sep 14
Yes, that was my mistake. I meant to say resolves as Yes.
yonips Sep 14
Did you mean the only reasons it might resolve yes? didn't understand
IamBatman- Sep 14
yopp
RUMBLED Sep 13
There is gonna be a lot of price fluctuations from here until the date of expiry, whatever that is but Imo the only reasons this resolves no is if Trump passes and Vance takes over or if Trump decides to just declare victory and lie and say he'll withdraw. The amount of people here betting on him acting sane is ridiculous.
yungsoleimani Sep 13
hindsightmaxxing
0x41E8266341517750bec28829015b5289FE00b994-1766188710954 Sep 13
how tf did i miss this price action omg, it was at fckin 26% you can‘t make this shi up
Natstar777 Sep 13
Huh
