This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24H VOLUME
$124.5K
LIQUIDITY
$124.5K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (12)
0x9c9f2C8538f38f07647f9A4653abc73e2695e0d4-1772647737972 Mar 18
if nato dissolves there will be a world war either way lol, free money on no
GollumGekko Jan 27
if you think the chance is 30-50% u ought to buy some shares
NotProvided Jan 20
Exactly. That was my point
NoSteinNoGate Jan 20
He is implying the overton window has shifted, thereby bringing previously unthinkable things into the discussion
NotProvided Jan 19
I know what the Overton window is, but can you elaborate on your comment?
0x6120f232678c5a79f2af057b34100f2B5c3BB06a-1767832584697 Jan 19
Overton window
NotProvided Jan 18
According to some recent political debates I have listened to recently, not necessarily. They have to consider who could win in 2032... 2036... so on. Stability at this point is no longer guaranteed, which is what you need for a long-term partnership. This factor is no longer present
NotProvided Jan 18
The fact that this is even serious discussion. This would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. But I'm not betting yet. I'd say 30-50% chance
betkingglv Jan 15
yes, of course.
Edmand Jan 12
All NATO countries are pinning their hopes on the Democratic Party as the ruling party in the next election.
White-Knight Jan 11
Yes, this bet is undervalued. If US takes Greenland then this is going to happen for sure. US taking greenland and this bet should have similar odds, which they havent.
EyeOfMidas Jan 8
Yes, unfortunately.
