Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Politics

Eventcmtla1gxl00l4mv018ca6q0qq

Closes in

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

24H VOLUME

$152.8K

LIQUIDITY

$152.8K

BALANCE

Resolves according to the official outcome source for this event.

Comments (50)

InsderEpstien 1h ago

I am not us Citizen but I feel people are fed up with Mango

hyper-liquid-xyz 5h ago

US delegation walks out in protest of mid-Iran UN speech today - youtube - watch?v=vvyG23UpvDQ 2:32-2:59

hyper-liquid-xyz 6h ago

Stocks that benefit in Trump's US Export ban - REP (Repsol) is a pure-play EU refiner stock that gained a lot of traction. FRO (Frontline), ECO will grind up as 75-85% of their routes are non-US flexible with $3-5 quarterly dividends projecting upwards to $5-$8. Risks to all 3 is evidence is needed to move from temporary to structural effects of the equities.

G.Hchen 23h ago

I'm tired of winning Mr President

dPredictor Sep 22

you're not getting that 5k check he has lied about this before, repeatedly, it never happened

dPredictor Sep 22

hope he does it, oil companies are the only supporters he has left, and it is only because he is making them $$$$$

0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-1773865151877 Sep 22

Oil execs will would want him axed though

hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 22

Axios - Trump backs ban on diesel exports. This will lower US diesel prices and crash WTI/HO while Brent/Gasoil will spike. International refinery and shipping equities that uses non-US routes will benefit.

Fujii Sep 22

he probably ded before they will get to a conviction sadly that stuff takes years

dPredictor Sep 21

most likely he will be impeached, convicted, removed from office, and locked up or he might escape to Russia, TBD

dPredictor Sep 21

by calling a recess to stop the Hegseth impeachment

dPredictor Sep 21

Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Hegseth over the Iran war, forcing a House vote by Thursday. Johnson prevented the vote by abruptly canceling Thursday’s session and recessing the House Wednesday evening for a seven-week break through the midterms, like the pu$$y he is

Fujii Sep 21

Trump will go down in history as the worst and most corrupt president ever

charliekai62 Sep 19

omg

NATGAS Sep 17

God, may America be saved.

AnEggplant Sep 17

Magat whales capitulating

Bobb-480 Sep 17

Is this big shift just because of the interest rate hike?

JustTheFacts Sep 17

Mike Johnson conceded the midterms

moneymakingmachine Sep 16

what is going on??

H4RE Sep 16

Wtf happened today?

Ranzz26 Sep 15

Dollarbig Sep 15

mimimim

Gratitude-204 Sep 14

Iran's control of saudi's oil will drive up oil price after all the oil reserve is getting dry.

JustTheFacts Sep 13

It's over for the GOP and MAGA. Big traders waited until after Labor Day.

Magician5342 Sep 13

You can observe a significant split voting between Sanders and Hinson in polls, Turek is not bad but Hinson is a strong candidate.

mariusfnk Sep 13

CKAB Sep 12

Uh, yes it can, easily. Cooper is going to win, Troy Jackson in Maine is an easy pickup, Talarico is leading and Peltola is going to win in AK easily too. They can also win in IA because Hinson is a woman and Turek is a man.

WDCons Sep 11

The market isn't taking it seriously. Which is fair as it cannot actually happen.

vip777 Sep 10

I'm getting that trump stimulus

0x1e13499A02DA4E13583D745D4669783215d9fB62-1781526188634 Sep 10

like last time lmao

Magician5342 Sep 10

Dem needs to flip NC, ME, TX and AK to control the Senate. IA is not in play bc Hinson is a good candidate

molala Sep 10

R Senate D House easy money !

CKAB Sep 10

Who gives a fuck. They're full of shit anyways and it's state's rights.

Hello0perator Sep 9

This. Some ballots are going out next week. This lawsuit will fail... but they will use that as fuel for the "rigged election" fire.

CKAB Sep 8

SCOTUS can't do anything about it because voting is up to the states regardless.

ChetChetwick Sep 8

The SCOTUS is supposed to rule on mail-in balloting soon. I imagine this is going to change things in a hurry.

ChefSlice Sep 3

Missouri Supreme Court blocks Republican Gerrymandered Map. Restores previous map.

EastBoat Aug 28

The Republicans cannot lose the Senate in the midterm elections. —China Prophet

Cope-seethe-dial8 Aug 27

lake epstein

hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 27

Trump calling the Lake Ontario as Lake America amid the trade war. US need fix it attitude in order for him to win midterms.

hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 27

Well BeamTracker's post of anti-ship missiles hitting a ship with IRGC Ali Bk's post having 🤣🤣 in the comments tells you everything you need to know. Trump will get support if he does the right thing against Iran terrorists!